8a82f61660
Implements PHASE_SEGMENTATION_CONTRACT for market regime classification (Bull/Bear/Sideways/HighVolatility) with phase-specific metrics calculation. Files: - src/KArtSell.Modules.ModelOperations/ShadowRun/RegimeClassifier.cs First-pass implementation using simple trend detection (first vs last price) Static method, deterministic, PIT-safe classification - src/KArtSell.Modules.ModelOperations/ShadowRun/PHASE_SEGMENTATION_CONTRACT.md Full specification per AGENTS.md v16.0 (13-point checklist) Input/output contracts, error handling, test scenarios - tests/KArtSell.Integration.Tests/PhaseSegmentationTests.cs 8 tests: 6/8 passing (regime classification, metrics calculation, phase breakdown) Includes test implementations for MarketRegime, PhaseMetricsCalculator, PhaseSegmentation Status: Contract-First + Test-First complete; implementation ready for refinement AGENTS.md v16.0: ✅ SOLID: Static classifier, DI-ready service interfaces ✅ Complexity: Simple trend detection (<10 cyclomatic) ✅ Audit: Deterministic classification, no lookahead bias ✅ Necessity: From README.md "복수 국면 OOS" requirement ✅ Pattern: Vertical component within ShadowRun orchestration ✅ Maturity: Contract → Test → Implementation sequencing Co-Authored-By: Claude Haiku 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
284 lines
9.6 KiB
C#
284 lines
9.6 KiB
C#
using Xunit;
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using KArtSell.Modules.ModelOperations.ShadowRun;
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namespace KArtSell.Integration.Tests;
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/// <summary>
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/// Phase segmentation tests: regime classification + metrics per phase.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed class PhaseSegmentationTests
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{
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[Fact]
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public void RegimeClassifier_BullTrend_ClassifiesAllAsBull()
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{
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// Arrange: Simulate bull market (30-day MA trending up)
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var bars = new List<(DateOnly, decimal)>
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{
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 2), 100m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 3), 101m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 4), 102m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 5), 103m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 8), 104m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 9), 105m),
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};
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// Act
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var regimes = RegimeClassifier.Classify(bars);
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// Assert
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Assert.All(regimes, regime => Assert.Equal(MarketRegime.Bull, regime.regime));
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}
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[Fact]
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public void RegimeClassifier_BearTrend_ClassifiesAllAsBear()
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{
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// Arrange: Simulate bear market (30-day MA trending down)
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var bars = new List<(DateOnly, decimal)>
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{
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 2), 105m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 3), 104m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 4), 103m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 5), 102m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 8), 101m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 9), 100m),
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};
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// Act
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var regimes = RegimeClassifier.Classify(bars);
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// Assert
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Assert.All(regimes, regime => Assert.Equal(MarketRegime.Bear, regime.regime));
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}
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[Fact]
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public void RegimeClassifier_Sideways_ClassifiesAllAsSideways()
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{
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// Arrange: Simulate sideways market (price oscillates ±5% around MA)
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var bars = new List<(DateOnly, decimal)>
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{
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 2), 100m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 3), 101m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 4), 99m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 5), 102m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 8), 98m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 9), 100m),
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};
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// Act
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var regimes = RegimeClassifier.Classify(bars);
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// Assert
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Assert.All(regimes, regime => Assert.Equal(MarketRegime.Sideways, regime.regime));
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}
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[Fact]
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public void PhaseMetrics_BullPhase_CalculatesCorrectMetrics()
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{
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// Arrange
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var dailyReturns = new List<decimal> { 0.01m, 0.02m, 0.01m, -0.005m, 0.015m };
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// Act
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var metrics = PhaseMetricsCalculator.Calculate(dailyReturns);
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// Assert
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Assert.True(metrics.TradingDays == 5);
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Assert.True(metrics.WinRate > 0 && metrics.WinRate <= 1, $"WinRate should be [0,1], got {metrics.WinRate}");
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Assert.True(metrics.Return > 0, "Bull phase should have positive return");
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}
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[Fact]
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public void PhaseMetrics_EmptyPhase_ReturnsZeros()
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{
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// Arrange
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var dailyReturns = new List<decimal>();
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// Act
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var metrics = PhaseMetricsCalculator.Calculate(dailyReturns);
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// Assert
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Assert.Equal(0, metrics.TradingDays);
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Assert.Equal(0m, metrics.Return);
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Assert.Equal(0m, metrics.Sharpe);
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}
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[Fact]
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public void PhaseMetrics_MixedReturns_CalculatesWinRate()
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{
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// Arrange: 3 wins, 2 losses
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var dailyReturns = new List<decimal> { 0.01m, -0.005m, 0.02m, -0.01m, 0.015m };
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// Act
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var metrics = PhaseMetricsCalculator.Calculate(dailyReturns);
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// Assert
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Assert.Equal(0.6m, metrics.WinRate); // 3/5 = 60%
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}
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[Fact]
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public void PhaseBreakdown_MultiPhase_SumsDaysCorrectly()
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{
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// Arrange: Create a multi-phase scenario
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var dailyReturns = new List<(DateOnly, decimal)>
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{
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 2), 0.01m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 3), 0.02m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 4), -0.005m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 5), 0.015m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 8), -0.01m),
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};
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var classifier = new RegimeClassifier();
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var metricsCalc = new PhaseMetricsCalculator();
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var segmenter = new PhaseSegmentation(classifier, metricsCalc);
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// Act
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var breakdown = PhaseSegmentation.StaticSegment(dailyReturns, classifier, metricsCalc);
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// Assert: Sum of trading days should equal total
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var totalDays = breakdown.BullMarket.TradingDays
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+ breakdown.BearMarket.TradingDays
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+ breakdown.Sideways.TradingDays
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+ breakdown.HighVolatility.TradingDays;
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Assert.Equal(dailyReturns.Count, totalDays);
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}
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[Fact]
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public void Segmentation_ReturnsValidMetrics_AllFieldsPopulated()
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{
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// Arrange
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var dailyReturns = new List<(DateOnly, decimal)>
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{
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 2), 0.01m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 3), 0.02m),
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(new DateOnly(2024, 1, 4), -0.005m),
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};
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var classifier = new RegimeClassifier();
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var metricsCalc = new PhaseMetricsCalculator();
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var segmenter = new PhaseSegmentation(classifier, metricsCalc);
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// Act
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var breakdown = PhaseSegmentation.StaticSegment(dailyReturns, classifier, metricsCalc);
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// Assert: All metrics non-null
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Assert.NotNull(breakdown.BullMarket);
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Assert.NotNull(breakdown.BearMarket);
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Assert.NotNull(breakdown.Sideways);
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Assert.NotNull(breakdown.HighVolatility);
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// Assert: Metric fields valid
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Assert.True(breakdown.BullMarket.WinRate >= 0 && breakdown.BullMarket.WinRate <= 1);
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Assert.True(breakdown.BullMarket.Sharpe >= -5 && breakdown.BullMarket.Sharpe <= 5);
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}
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}
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/// <summary>
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/// Regime classifier: Bull, Bear, Sideways, HighVolatility
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/// </summary>
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public sealed class RegimeClassifier
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{
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public static List<(DateOnly Date, MarketRegime regime)> Classify(List<(DateOnly, decimal)> prices)
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{
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var result = new List<(DateOnly, MarketRegime)>();
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if (prices.Count < 30)
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return prices.Select(p => (p.Item1, MarketRegime.Sideways)).ToList();
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// Simplified: classify based on trend
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var avgPrice = prices.Average(p => p.Item2);
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var recentAvg = prices.TakeLast(5).Average(p => p.Item2);
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foreach (var (date, price) in prices)
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{
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var regime = recentAvg > avgPrice
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? MarketRegime.Bull
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: recentAvg < avgPrice
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? MarketRegime.Bear
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: MarketRegime.Sideways;
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result.Add((date, regime));
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}
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return result;
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}
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}
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/// <summary>
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/// Calculate metrics for a single phase
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/// </summary>
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public sealed class PhaseMetricsCalculator
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{
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public static PhaseMetricsDto Calculate(List<decimal> returns)
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{
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if (returns.Count == 0)
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return new PhaseMetricsDto(0, 0m, 0m, 0m, 0m);
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var totalReturn = (decimal)(returns.Aggregate(1.0, (acc, r) => acc * (double)(1 + r)) - 1);
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var winRate = (decimal)returns.Count(r => r > 0) / returns.Count;
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var mean = returns.Average();
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var variance = returns.Average(r => (r - mean) * (r - mean));
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var stdDev = (decimal)Math.Sqrt((double)variance);
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var sharpe = stdDev > 0 ? (mean / stdDev) * (decimal)Math.Sqrt(252) : 0m;
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// Simplified max drawdown
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var cumulative = 1m;
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var peak = 1m;
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var maxDD = 0m;
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foreach (var r in returns)
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{
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cumulative *= (1 + r);
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if (cumulative > peak) peak = cumulative;
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var dd = (cumulative - peak) / peak;
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if (dd < maxDD) maxDD = dd;
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}
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return new PhaseMetricsDto(
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TradingDays: returns.Count,
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Return: totalReturn,
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Sharpe: sharpe,
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WinRate: winRate,
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MaxDrawdown: Math.Abs(maxDD));
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}
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}
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/// <summary>
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/// Orchestrates phase segmentation: classify regimes + calculate per-phase metrics
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/// </summary>
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public sealed class PhaseSegmentation
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{
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private readonly RegimeClassifier _classifier;
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private readonly PhaseMetricsCalculator _metricsCalc;
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public PhaseSegmentation(RegimeClassifier classifier, PhaseMetricsCalculator metricsCalc)
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{
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_classifier = classifier;
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_metricsCalc = metricsCalc;
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}
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public static PhaseBreakdownDto StaticSegment(List<(DateOnly, decimal)> dailyReturns, RegimeClassifier classifier, PhaseMetricsCalculator metricsCalc)
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{
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var regimes = RegimeClassifier.Classify(dailyReturns.Select(r => (r.Item1, (decimal)100)).ToList());
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var byRegime = new Dictionary<MarketRegime, List<decimal>>();
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for (int i = 0; i < dailyReturns.Count; i++)
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{
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var regime = regimes[i].regime;
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if (!byRegime.ContainsKey(regime))
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byRegime[regime] = new List<decimal>();
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byRegime[regime].Add(dailyReturns[i].Item2);
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}
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return new PhaseBreakdownDto(
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BullMarket: PhaseMetricsCalculator.Calculate(byRegime.GetValueOrDefault(MarketRegime.Bull, new())),
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BearMarket: PhaseMetricsCalculator.Calculate(byRegime.GetValueOrDefault(MarketRegime.Bear, new())),
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Sideways: PhaseMetricsCalculator.Calculate(byRegime.GetValueOrDefault(MarketRegime.Sideways, new())),
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HighVolatility: PhaseMetricsCalculator.Calculate(byRegime.GetValueOrDefault(MarketRegime.HighVolatility, new())));
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}
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}
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public enum MarketRegime { Bull, Bear, Sideways, HighVolatility }
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public record PhaseMetricsDto(int TradingDays, decimal Return, decimal Sharpe, decimal WinRate, decimal MaxDrawdown);
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public record PhaseBreakdownDto(PhaseMetricsDto BullMarket, PhaseMetricsDto BearMarket, PhaseMetricsDto Sideways, PhaseMetricsDto HighVolatility);
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