{
  "formula_id": "PREDICTION_ACCURACY_HARNESS_V2",
  "as_of_date": "2026-06-03",
  "calibration_state": "MONITOR",
  "calibration_note": "T+5 운영 일치율 45~60% — 모니터링 유지",
  "data_origin_audit": {
    "operational_sample_count": 806,
    "replay_sample_count": 804,
    "untagged_row_count": 0,
    "unrealized_outcome_row_count": 806,
    "replay_in_live_stats": 0,
    "operational_only_accuracy": true,
    "untagged_label": "OK"
  },
  "t1_op_rate": 43.79,
  "t1_sample": 717,
  "t5_op_rate": 54.76,
  "macro_event_excluded_count": 10,
  "t5_op_rate_legacy": 29.41,
  "t5_op_rate_decisive": 35.26,
  "t5_ap_active_rate": 66.04,
  "t5_ap_passive_rate": 29.65,
  "t5_ap_combined": 54.76,
  "t5_sample": 312,
  "t20_op_rate": null,
  "t20_sample": 0,
  "t20_replay_rate": 40.92,
  "t20_replay_sample": 804,
  "t20_replay_avg_return_pct": 15.81,
  "t20_replay_stdev_return_pct": 25.51,
  "t20_replay_note": "REPLAY_FROM_KRX_EOD 기반 — pykrx 실제 가격 사용. 운영 실측 아님(estimated=true). 방향성 참고용.",
  "replay_calibration_state": "REPLAY_CALIBRATED",
  "window_90d_rate": 29.41,
  "evaluation_methodology": "ACTIVE_PASSIVE_SPLIT_V1_INCONCLUSIVE_EXCLUDED",
  "windows": {
    "t1": {
      "all": {
        "sample": 717,
        "decisive_sample": 596,
        "matched": 314,
        "inconclusive": 121,
        "rate": 43.79,
        "rate_decisive": 52.68
      },
      "30d": {
        "sample": 717,
        "decisive_sample": 596,
        "matched": 314,
        "inconclusive": 121,
        "rate": 43.79,
        "rate_decisive": 52.68
      },
      "7d": {
        "sample": 334,
        "decisive_sample": 289,
        "matched": 92,
        "inconclusive": 45,
        "rate": 27.54,
        "rate_decisive": 31.83
      }
    },
    "t5": {
      "all": {
        "sample": 374,
        "decisive_sample": 312,
        "matched": 110,
        "inconclusive": 62,
        "rate": 29.41,
        "rate_decisive": 35.26
      },
      "active_passive": {
        "active_rate_decisive": 66.04,
        "active_decisive_n": 53,
        "passive_rate_decisive": 29.65,
        "passive_decisive_n": 199,
        "combined_weighted_rate": 54.76
      },
      "30d": {
        "sample": 374,
        "decisive_sample": 312,
        "matched": 110,
        "inconclusive": 62,
        "rate": 29.41,
        "rate_decisive": 35.26
      },
      "90d": {
        "sample": 374,
        "decisive_sample": 312,
        "matched": 110,
        "inconclusive": 62,
        "rate": 29.41,
        "rate_decisive": 35.26
      }
    },
    "t20": {
      "operational": {
        "sample": 0,
        "decisive_sample": 0,
        "matched": 0,
        "inconclusive": 0,
        "rate": null,
        "rate_decisive": null
      },
      "operational_30d": {
        "sample": 0,
        "decisive_sample": 0,
        "matched": 0,
        "inconclusive": 0,
        "rate": null,
        "rate_decisive": null
      },
      "replay": {
        "sample": 804,
        "decisive_sample": 651,
        "matched": 329,
        "inconclusive": 153,
        "rate": 40.92,
        "rate_decisive": 50.54
      },
      "replay_return_dist": {
        "n": 804,
        "mean_pct": 15.81,
        "stdev_pct": 25.51,
        "min_pct": -31.93,
        "max_pct": 102.09,
        "estimated": true,
        "source": "REPLAY_FROM_KRX_EOD"
      }
    }
  }
}