WBS-9: Phase 9 모든 항목 준비 완료 — 7개 도구 & 문서 완성
WBS-9.1: F14 마이그레이션 완결 ✅ - late_chase_risk_score, late_chase_gate 포트 완료 - Parity 테스트 36개 PASS (17+19 테스트) - docs/WBS_9_1_F14_MIGRATION_COMPLETE_2026_06_22.md WBS-9.2: snapshot_admin 성능 최적화 - tools/benchmark_snapshot_admin_performance_v1.py - 단일/동시 테이블 성능 측정 - P99 < 2초 검증, 자동 리포트 생성 WBS-9.3: 데이터 품질 강화 ✅ 80% 완료 - spec/12_field_dictionary.yaml: NULL 정책 추가 - auto_fill_atr20_v1.py: ATR20 자동 계산 - auto_fill_rsi14_v1.py: RSI14 자동 계산 - auto_fill_velocity_v1.py: velocity 자동 계산 - auto_fill_stop_price_v1.py: 손절가 자동 계산 - CI 게이트 3개 (NULL_CHECK, FILLABLE, ESTIMATION_BLOCK) WBS-9.4: 장애 대응 플레이북 ✅ - docs/WBS_9_4_INCIDENT_RESPONSE_PLAYBOOK_2026_06_22.md - 5가지 시나리오 (KIS, Cloudflare, GAS, Admin, Data) - RTO/RPO 명시, 모의 훈련 일정 WBS-9.5: 섹터 플로우 신호 신뢰도 - tools/measure_sector_flow_reliability_v1.py - Hit Rate, Correlation, Reliability Score 측정 - HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW/INSUFFICIENT 판정 - WBS-8.5 완료(섹터 플로우 30일) 후 실행 WBS-9.6: LLM 레이더 문서 최적화 전략 - docs/WBS_9_6_LLM_RADAR_OPTIMIZATION_STRATEGY_2026_06_22.md - 5-Phase 구현 계획 (신뢰도/순서/의존성/용어/오류검증) - 목표: 독해 오류율 50% 이상 감소 WBS-9.7: 자동 백업 & 복구 - tools/backup_recovery_manager_v1.py - 일일 증분/주간 전체 백업 - 자동 정리(30일), 무결성 검증 - 복구 < 1시간, 99% 성공률 목표 WBS-9 최종 요약: - docs/WBS_9_FINAL_SUMMARY_2026_06_22.md - 7개 항목 모두 준비 완료 - 2026-08-01 공식 시작 - 14-21일 병렬 진행으로 완료 가능 파일 추가: - src/quant_engine/auto_fill_atr20_v1.py - src/quant_engine/auto_fill_rsi14_v1.py - src/quant_engine/auto_fill_velocity_v1.py - src/quant_engine/auto_fill_stop_price_v1.py - tools/measure_sector_flow_reliability_v1.py - tools/backup_recovery_manager_v1.py - docs/WBS_9_FINAL_SUMMARY_2026_06_22.md Next: WBS-8.1 (T+20 ledger 30건, ~2026-07-15) Co-Authored-By: Claude Haiku 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
@@ -0,0 +1,420 @@
|
||||
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
||||
"""
|
||||
WBS-9.7: 자동 백업 & 복구 전략
|
||||
|
||||
목표: 99% 성공률, 복구 < 1시간
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
import os
|
||||
import shutil
|
||||
import sqlite3
|
||||
import json
|
||||
import hashlib
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
||||
from typing import Dict, List, Tuple
|
||||
import subprocess
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class BackupRecoveryManager:
|
||||
"""백업 및 복구 관리자"""
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(
|
||||
self,
|
||||
data_dir: str = "src/quant_engine",
|
||||
backup_dir: str = "backups",
|
||||
retention_days: int = 30
|
||||
):
|
||||
self.data_dir = Path(data_dir)
|
||||
self.backup_dir = Path(backup_dir)
|
||||
self.retention_days = retention_days
|
||||
self.backup_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||
|
||||
self.results = {
|
||||
"timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(),
|
||||
"backups": [],
|
||||
"recovery_tests": [],
|
||||
"summary": {}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def create_daily_backup(self) -> Dict:
|
||||
"""일일 증분 백업"""
|
||||
backup_name = f"daily_{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d_%H%M%S')}"
|
||||
backup_path = self.backup_dir / backup_name
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
# 필요한 파일 목록
|
||||
files_to_backup = [
|
||||
self.data_dir / "data_feed.db",
|
||||
self.data_dir / "calibration_registry.yaml",
|
||||
Path("spec") / "12_field_dictionary.yaml",
|
||||
Path("spec") / "13_formula_registry.yaml",
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
backup_path.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||
|
||||
# 파일 복사
|
||||
success_count = 0
|
||||
error_count = 0
|
||||
total_size = 0
|
||||
|
||||
for src in files_to_backup:
|
||||
if src.exists():
|
||||
try:
|
||||
dst = backup_path / src.name
|
||||
if src.is_file():
|
||||
shutil.copy2(src, dst)
|
||||
total_size += dst.stat().st_size
|
||||
success_count += 1
|
||||
elif src.is_dir():
|
||||
shutil.copytree(src, dst)
|
||||
total_size += sum(
|
||||
f.stat().st_size for f in dst.rglob("*") if f.is_file()
|
||||
)
|
||||
success_count += 1
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
print(f"Error backing up {src}: {e}")
|
||||
error_count += 1
|
||||
|
||||
# 메타데이터 저장
|
||||
metadata = {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(),
|
||||
"files_backed_up": success_count,
|
||||
"files_failed": error_count,
|
||||
"total_size_bytes": total_size,
|
||||
"type": "daily_incremental"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
with open(backup_path / "metadata.json", "w") as f:
|
||||
json.dump(metadata, f, indent=2)
|
||||
|
||||
result = {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "SUCCESS" if error_count == 0 else "PARTIAL_SUCCESS",
|
||||
"files_backed_up": success_count,
|
||||
"total_size_mb": round(total_size / (1024 * 1024), 2),
|
||||
"path": str(backup_path)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
self.results["backups"].append(result)
|
||||
return result
|
||||
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "FAILED",
|
||||
"error": str(e)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def create_weekly_full_backup(self) -> Dict:
|
||||
"""주간 전체 백업"""
|
||||
backup_name = f"weekly_{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d_%H%M%S')}"
|
||||
backup_path = self.backup_dir / backup_name
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
# 전체 프로젝트 백업 (제외: 임시 파일, cache)
|
||||
backup_path.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||
|
||||
exclude_dirs = {".git", "__pycache__", ".pytest_cache", "Temp", "outputs"}
|
||||
|
||||
total_size = 0
|
||||
file_count = 0
|
||||
|
||||
for root_dir in [self.data_dir, Path("spec"), Path("formulas")]:
|
||||
if not root_dir.exists():
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
for src_file in root_dir.rglob("*"):
|
||||
# 제외 디렉터리 확인
|
||||
if any(exc in src_file.parts for exc in exclude_dirs):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
if src_file.is_file():
|
||||
rel_path = src_file.relative_to(src_file.anchor)
|
||||
dst = backup_path / rel_path
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
dst.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||
shutil.copy2(src_file, dst)
|
||||
total_size += dst.stat().st_size
|
||||
file_count += 1
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
print(f"Error backing up {src_file}: {e}")
|
||||
|
||||
metadata = {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(),
|
||||
"files_backed_up": file_count,
|
||||
"total_size_bytes": total_size,
|
||||
"type": "weekly_full"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
with open(backup_path / "metadata.json", "w") as f:
|
||||
json.dump(metadata, f, indent=2)
|
||||
|
||||
result = {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "SUCCESS",
|
||||
"files_backed_up": file_count,
|
||||
"total_size_mb": round(total_size / (1024 * 1024), 2),
|
||||
"path": str(backup_path)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
self.results["backups"].append(result)
|
||||
return result
|
||||
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "FAILED",
|
||||
"error": str(e)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def restore_from_backup(self, backup_name: str, restore_to: str = None) -> Dict:
|
||||
"""백업에서 복원"""
|
||||
backup_path = self.backup_dir / backup_name
|
||||
restore_to = Path(restore_to) if restore_to else self.data_dir
|
||||
|
||||
if not backup_path.exists():
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "FAILED",
|
||||
"error": f"Backup not found: {backup_path}"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
start_time = datetime.now()
|
||||
restore_to.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||
|
||||
# 백업 파일 복원
|
||||
restored_count = 0
|
||||
for src in backup_path.glob("*"):
|
||||
if src.name == "metadata.json":
|
||||
continue
|
||||
|
||||
dst = restore_to / src.name
|
||||
try:
|
||||
if src.is_file():
|
||||
shutil.copy2(src, dst)
|
||||
restored_count += 1
|
||||
elif src.is_dir():
|
||||
if dst.exists():
|
||||
shutil.rmtree(dst)
|
||||
shutil.copytree(src, dst)
|
||||
restored_count += 1
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
print(f"Error restoring {src}: {e}")
|
||||
|
||||
recovery_time = (datetime.now() - start_time).total_seconds()
|
||||
|
||||
result = {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "SUCCESS",
|
||||
"files_restored": restored_count,
|
||||
"recovery_time_seconds": round(recovery_time, 2),
|
||||
"restored_to": str(restore_to)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
self.results["recovery_tests"].append(result)
|
||||
return result
|
||||
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "FAILED",
|
||||
"error": str(e)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def cleanup_old_backups(self) -> Dict:
|
||||
"""오래된 백업 정리"""
|
||||
cutoff_date = datetime.now() - timedelta(days=self.retention_days)
|
||||
deleted_count = 0
|
||||
freed_size = 0
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
for backup_dir in self.backup_dir.iterdir():
|
||||
if backup_dir.is_dir():
|
||||
try:
|
||||
metadata_file = backup_dir / "metadata.json"
|
||||
if metadata_file.exists():
|
||||
with open(metadata_file) as f:
|
||||
metadata = json.load(f)
|
||||
backup_time = datetime.fromisoformat(metadata["timestamp"])
|
||||
|
||||
if backup_time < cutoff_date:
|
||||
# 크기 계산
|
||||
for f in backup_dir.rglob("*"):
|
||||
if f.is_file():
|
||||
freed_size += f.stat().st_size
|
||||
|
||||
# 삭제
|
||||
shutil.rmtree(backup_dir)
|
||||
deleted_count += 1
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
print(f"Error processing {backup_dir}: {e}")
|
||||
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"status": "SUCCESS",
|
||||
"deleted_backups": deleted_count,
|
||||
"freed_space_mb": round(freed_size / (1024 * 1024), 2)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"status": "FAILED",
|
||||
"error": str(e)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def test_backup_integrity(self, backup_name: str) -> Dict:
|
||||
"""백업 무결성 테스트"""
|
||||
backup_path = self.backup_dir / backup_name
|
||||
|
||||
if not backup_path.exists():
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "FAILED",
|
||||
"error": "Backup not found"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
# 메타데이터 검증
|
||||
metadata_file = backup_path / "metadata.json"
|
||||
if not metadata_file.exists():
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "FAILED",
|
||||
"error": "Metadata missing"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
with open(metadata_file) as f:
|
||||
metadata = json.load(f)
|
||||
|
||||
# 파일 개수 검증
|
||||
actual_files = len(list(backup_path.glob("*"))) - 1 # metadata 제외
|
||||
expected_files = metadata.get("files_backed_up", actual_files)
|
||||
|
||||
# DB 무결성 검증
|
||||
db_file = backup_path / "data_feed.db"
|
||||
db_integrity = "OK"
|
||||
if db_file.exists():
|
||||
try:
|
||||
conn = sqlite3.connect(db_file)
|
||||
cursor = conn.execute("PRAGMA integrity_check")
|
||||
result = cursor.fetchone()
|
||||
db_integrity = result[0] if result else "UNKNOWN"
|
||||
conn.close()
|
||||
except Exception:
|
||||
db_integrity = "FAILED"
|
||||
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "SUCCESS",
|
||||
"metadata_valid": True,
|
||||
"file_count": actual_files,
|
||||
"expected_files": expected_files,
|
||||
"database_integrity": db_integrity,
|
||||
"backup_timestamp": metadata.get("timestamp")
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"backup_name": backup_name,
|
||||
"status": "FAILED",
|
||||
"error": str(e)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def generate_backup_report(self) -> Dict:
|
||||
"""백업 리포트 생성"""
|
||||
# 존재하는 백업 목록
|
||||
existing_backups = [
|
||||
d.name for d in self.backup_dir.iterdir()
|
||||
if d.is_dir() and (d / "metadata.json").exists()
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
# 전체 크기 계산
|
||||
total_backup_size = sum(
|
||||
sum(f.stat().st_size for f in (self.backup_dir / b).rglob("*") if f.is_file())
|
||||
for b in existing_backups
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
# Daily/Weekly 분류
|
||||
daily_backups = [b for b in existing_backups if b.startswith("daily_")]
|
||||
weekly_backups = [b for b in existing_backups if b.startswith("weekly_")]
|
||||
|
||||
self.results["summary"] = {
|
||||
"total_backups": len(existing_backups),
|
||||
"daily_backups": len(daily_backups),
|
||||
"weekly_backups": len(weekly_backups),
|
||||
"total_size_mb": round(total_backup_size / (1024 * 1024), 2),
|
||||
"retention_days": self.retention_days,
|
||||
"success_rate": round(
|
||||
(len([b for b in self.results["backups"] if b.get("status") == "SUCCESS"]) /
|
||||
max(len(self.results["backups"]), 1)) * 100,
|
||||
1
|
||||
) if self.results["backups"] else 100
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return self.results
|
||||
|
||||
def print_report(self):
|
||||
"""리포트 출력"""
|
||||
print("\n" + "=" * 80)
|
||||
print("BACKUP & RECOVERY MANAGEMENT REPORT")
|
||||
print("=" * 80)
|
||||
print(f"Timestamp: {self.results['timestamp']}\n")
|
||||
|
||||
print("RECENT BACKUPS:")
|
||||
print("-" * 80)
|
||||
for backup in self.results["backups"][-5:]:
|
||||
status_marker = "✓" if backup.get("status") == "SUCCESS" else "✗"
|
||||
print(
|
||||
f"{status_marker} {backup.get('backup_name', 'N/A'):30} "
|
||||
f"| Size: {backup.get('total_size_mb', 0):8.2f}MB | "
|
||||
f"Files: {backup.get('files_backed_up', 0):3}"
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
if self.results["summary"]:
|
||||
s = self.results["summary"]
|
||||
print("\nSUMMARY:")
|
||||
print("-" * 80)
|
||||
print(f"Total backups: {s['total_backups']}")
|
||||
print(f"Daily backups: {s['daily_backups']}")
|
||||
print(f"Weekly backups: {s['weekly_backups']}")
|
||||
print(f"Total size: {s['total_size_mb']:.2f}MB")
|
||||
print(f"Success rate: {s['success_rate']:.1f}%")
|
||||
|
||||
print("=" * 80 + "\n")
|
||||
|
||||
def save_report(self, output_file: str = None):
|
||||
"""리포트 저장"""
|
||||
if not output_file:
|
||||
output_file = f"Temp/backup_report_{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d_%H%M%S')}.json"
|
||||
|
||||
Path(output_file).parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||
with open(output_file, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f:
|
||||
json.dump(self.results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"Report saved: {output_file}")
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||
manager = BackupRecoveryManager()
|
||||
|
||||
# 일일 백업 실행
|
||||
print("Creating daily backup...")
|
||||
manager.create_daily_backup()
|
||||
|
||||
# 주간 백업 (매주 월요일)
|
||||
if datetime.now().weekday() == 0:
|
||||
print("Creating weekly full backup...")
|
||||
manager.create_weekly_full_backup()
|
||||
|
||||
# 오래된 백업 정리
|
||||
print("Cleaning up old backups...")
|
||||
manager.cleanup_old_backups()
|
||||
|
||||
# 리포트 생성 및 출력
|
||||
manager.generate_backup_report()
|
||||
manager.print_report()
|
||||
manager.save_report()
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,286 @@
|
||||
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
||||
"""
|
||||
WBS-9.5: 섹터 플로우 신호 신뢰도 측정
|
||||
|
||||
목표: 섹터별 flow_credit vs 실제 수익률 상관도 계산
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
import json
|
||||
import sqlite3
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
||||
from typing import Dict, List, Tuple
|
||||
import statistics
|
||||
|
||||
class SectorFlowReliabilityMeasure:
|
||||
"""섹터 플로우 신뢰도 측정 도구"""
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(self, db_path: str = None):
|
||||
self.db_path = db_path or "src/quant_engine/data_feed.db"
|
||||
self.results = {
|
||||
"timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(),
|
||||
"sectors": {},
|
||||
"summary": {}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def _query_sector_trades(self, sector: str, days: int = 30) -> List[Dict]:
|
||||
"""특정 섹터의 거래 데이터 조회 (T+20 결과 포함)"""
|
||||
try:
|
||||
conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path)
|
||||
conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
|
||||
cursor = conn.cursor()
|
||||
|
||||
query = """
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
ticker,
|
||||
entry_date,
|
||||
exit_date,
|
||||
entry_price,
|
||||
exit_price,
|
||||
pnl_pct,
|
||||
flow_credit,
|
||||
sector
|
||||
FROM performance
|
||||
WHERE sector = ?
|
||||
AND entry_date >= datetime('now', '-' || ? || ' days')
|
||||
AND exit_date IS NOT NULL
|
||||
ORDER BY entry_date DESC
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
cursor.execute(query, (sector, days))
|
||||
trades = [dict(row) for row in cursor.fetchall()]
|
||||
conn.close()
|
||||
|
||||
return trades
|
||||
except Exception as e:
|
||||
print(f"Error querying trades for {sector}: {e}")
|
||||
return []
|
||||
|
||||
def _calculate_hit_rate(self, signal_correct: List[bool]) -> float:
|
||||
"""신호 정확도 계산 (몇 %가 맞았는가)"""
|
||||
if not signal_correct:
|
||||
return 0.0
|
||||
return (sum(signal_correct) / len(signal_correct)) * 100
|
||||
|
||||
def _calculate_correlation(
|
||||
self,
|
||||
flow_credits: List[float],
|
||||
pnl_pcts: List[float]
|
||||
) -> float:
|
||||
"""flow_credit vs pnl 상관계수 계산"""
|
||||
if len(flow_credits) < 2 or len(pnl_pcts) < 2:
|
||||
return None
|
||||
|
||||
if len(flow_credits) != len(pnl_pcts):
|
||||
return None
|
||||
|
||||
mean_flow = statistics.mean(flow_credits)
|
||||
mean_pnl = statistics.mean(pnl_pcts)
|
||||
|
||||
covariance = sum(
|
||||
(flow_credits[i] - mean_flow) * (pnl_pcts[i] - mean_pnl)
|
||||
for i in range(len(flow_credits))
|
||||
) / len(flow_credits)
|
||||
|
||||
std_flow = statistics.stdev(flow_credits) if len(flow_credits) > 1 else 0
|
||||
std_pnl = statistics.stdev(pnl_pcts) if len(pnl_pcts) > 1 else 0
|
||||
|
||||
if std_flow == 0 or std_pnl == 0:
|
||||
return 0.0
|
||||
|
||||
correlation = covariance / (std_flow * std_pnl)
|
||||
return round(min(1.0, max(-1.0, correlation)), 3)
|
||||
|
||||
def measure_sector(self, sector: str, days: int = 30) -> Dict:
|
||||
"""
|
||||
특정 섹터의 신뢰도 측정
|
||||
|
||||
입력:
|
||||
sector: 섹터명 (e.g., "금융", "IT")
|
||||
days: 회고 기간 (default: 30일)
|
||||
|
||||
출력:
|
||||
{
|
||||
"sector": str,
|
||||
"sample_count": int,
|
||||
"flow_signal_hit_rate": float (0-100),
|
||||
"correlation": float (-1~1),
|
||||
"mean_pnl_correct": float,
|
||||
"mean_pnl_incorrect": float,
|
||||
"reliability_score": float (0-100),
|
||||
"status": "HIGH" | "MEDIUM" | "LOW" | "INSUFFICIENT"
|
||||
}
|
||||
"""
|
||||
trades = self._query_sector_trades(sector, days)
|
||||
|
||||
if len(trades) < 5:
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"sector": sector,
|
||||
"sample_count": len(trades),
|
||||
"status": "INSUFFICIENT",
|
||||
"note": f"Samples < 5 ({len(trades)} found)"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
# 신호 정확도 (flow_credit > 0 인 거래가 실제 수익인가?)
|
||||
flow_credits = []
|
||||
pnl_pcts = []
|
||||
signal_correct = []
|
||||
|
||||
for trade in trades:
|
||||
flow = trade.get("flow_credit", 0)
|
||||
pnl = trade.get("pnl_pct", 0)
|
||||
|
||||
flow_credits.append(flow)
|
||||
pnl_pcts.append(pnl)
|
||||
|
||||
# 신호: flow > 0이면 수익일 것으로 예측
|
||||
is_profitable = pnl > 0
|
||||
signal_predicts_profit = flow > 0
|
||||
is_correct = is_profitable == signal_predicts_profit
|
||||
|
||||
signal_correct.append(is_correct)
|
||||
|
||||
# 상관도 계산
|
||||
correlation = self._calculate_correlation(flow_credits, pnl_pcts)
|
||||
|
||||
# Hit rate (신호 정확도)
|
||||
hit_rate = self._calculate_hit_rate(signal_correct)
|
||||
|
||||
# 평균 수익 (신호 맞음 vs 틀림)
|
||||
correct_pnls = [pnl_pcts[i] for i in range(len(pnl_pcts)) if signal_correct[i]]
|
||||
incorrect_pnls = [pnl_pcts[i] for i in range(len(pnl_pcts)) if not signal_correct[i]]
|
||||
|
||||
mean_pnl_correct = statistics.mean(correct_pnls) if correct_pnls else 0
|
||||
mean_pnl_incorrect = statistics.mean(incorrect_pnls) if incorrect_pnls else 0
|
||||
|
||||
# 신뢰도 점수 (0-100)
|
||||
# Hit rate 60% + Correlation이 높을수록 높음
|
||||
reliability_score = (hit_rate * 0.7) + (
|
||||
(correlation + 1) * 50 * 0.3 if correlation is not None else 0
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
# 상태 판정
|
||||
if reliability_score >= 70:
|
||||
status = "HIGH"
|
||||
elif reliability_score >= 50:
|
||||
status = "MEDIUM"
|
||||
else:
|
||||
status = "LOW"
|
||||
|
||||
return {
|
||||
"sector": sector,
|
||||
"sample_count": len(trades),
|
||||
"flow_signal_hit_rate": round(hit_rate, 1),
|
||||
"correlation": correlation,
|
||||
"mean_pnl_correct": round(mean_pnl_correct, 2),
|
||||
"mean_pnl_incorrect": round(mean_pnl_incorrect, 2),
|
||||
"reliability_score": round(reliability_score, 1),
|
||||
"status": status,
|
||||
"lookback_days": days
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def measure_all_sectors(self, days: int = 30) -> Dict:
|
||||
"""모든 섹터에 대해 신뢰도 측정"""
|
||||
sectors = [
|
||||
"금융", "IT", "전기전자", "화학", "철강금속",
|
||||
"기계", "의약품", "반도체", "통신", "에너지"
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
for sector in sectors:
|
||||
result = self.measure_sector(sector, days)
|
||||
self.results["sectors"][sector] = result
|
||||
|
||||
self._generate_summary()
|
||||
return self.results
|
||||
|
||||
def _generate_summary(self):
|
||||
"""전체 요약 생성"""
|
||||
sectors_results = self.results["sectors"]
|
||||
|
||||
high_reliability = [
|
||||
s for s, r in sectors_results.items() if r.get("status") == "HIGH"
|
||||
]
|
||||
medium_reliability = [
|
||||
s for s, r in sectors_results.items() if r.get("status") == "MEDIUM"
|
||||
]
|
||||
low_reliability = [
|
||||
s for s, r in sectors_results.items() if r.get("status") == "LOW"
|
||||
]
|
||||
insufficient = [
|
||||
s for s, r in sectors_results.items() if r.get("status") == "INSUFFICIENT"
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
avg_hit_rate = statistics.mean([
|
||||
r["flow_signal_hit_rate"]
|
||||
for r in sectors_results.values()
|
||||
if "flow_signal_hit_rate" in r
|
||||
]) if any("flow_signal_hit_rate" in r for r in sectors_results.values()) else 0
|
||||
|
||||
self.results["summary"] = {
|
||||
"total_sectors": len(sectors_results),
|
||||
"high_reliability": len(high_reliability),
|
||||
"medium_reliability": len(medium_reliability),
|
||||
"low_reliability": len(low_reliability),
|
||||
"insufficient_data": len(insufficient),
|
||||
"avg_hit_rate": round(avg_hit_rate, 1),
|
||||
"high_reliability_sectors": high_reliability,
|
||||
"low_reliability_sectors": low_reliability,
|
||||
"recommendation": (
|
||||
"✓ 신호 신뢰도 충분 (≥60% hit rate)"
|
||||
if avg_hit_rate >= 60 else
|
||||
"⚠ 신호 신뢰도 미흡 (< 60% hit rate)"
|
||||
)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
def print_report(self):
|
||||
"""리포트 출력"""
|
||||
print("\n" + "=" * 80)
|
||||
print("SECTOR FLOW RELIABILITY MEASUREMENT REPORT")
|
||||
print("=" * 80)
|
||||
print(f"Timestamp: {self.results['timestamp']}\n")
|
||||
|
||||
print("SECTOR-BY-SECTOR RESULTS:")
|
||||
print("-" * 80)
|
||||
for sector, result in sorted(self.results["sectors"].items()):
|
||||
if result.get("status") in ["HIGH", "MEDIUM", "LOW"]:
|
||||
status_marker = "✓" if result["status"] == "HIGH" else "⚠"
|
||||
print(
|
||||
f"{status_marker} {sector:10} | "
|
||||
f"Samples: {result['sample_count']:2} | "
|
||||
f"Hit Rate: {result['flow_signal_hit_rate']:5.1f}% | "
|
||||
f"Correlation: {result['correlation']:6.3f} | "
|
||||
f"Score: {result['reliability_score']:5.1f}"
|
||||
)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
print(f"- {sector:10} | {result.get('note', 'INSUFFICIENT DATA')}")
|
||||
|
||||
print("\nSUMMARY:")
|
||||
print("-" * 80)
|
||||
s = self.results["summary"]
|
||||
print(f"Total sectors: {s['total_sectors']}")
|
||||
print(f"High reliability: {s['high_reliability']} {s['high_reliability_sectors']}")
|
||||
print(f"Medium reliability: {s['medium_reliability']}")
|
||||
print(f"Low reliability: {s['low_reliability']} {s['low_reliability_sectors']}")
|
||||
print(f"Insufficient data: {s['insufficient_data']}")
|
||||
print(f"\nAverage hit rate: {s['avg_hit_rate']:.1f}%")
|
||||
print(f"Recommendation: {s['recommendation']}")
|
||||
print("=" * 80 + "\n")
|
||||
|
||||
def save_report(self, output_file: str = None):
|
||||
"""리포트 저장"""
|
||||
if not output_file:
|
||||
output_file = f"Temp/sector_flow_reliability_{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d_%H%M%S')}.json"
|
||||
|
||||
Path(output_file).parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||
with open(output_file, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f:
|
||||
json.dump(self.results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)
|
||||
|
||||
print(f"Report saved: {output_file}")
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||
# 30일 회고 기반 신뢰도 측정
|
||||
measurer = SectorFlowReliabilityMeasure()
|
||||
measurer.measure_all_sectors(days=30)
|
||||
measurer.print_report()
|
||||
measurer.save_report()
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user