{
  "formula_id": "ALPHA_LEAD_THRESHOLD_OPTIMIZER_V2",
  "analysis_summary": {
    "total_watch_decisive": 127,
    "overall_match_rate": 28.35,
    "rate_excl_timing_none": 25.71,
    "gain_from_excl_none": -2.64
  },
  "timing_analysis": [
    {
      "timing": "None",
      "total": 57,
      "matched": 18,
      "match_rate_pct": 31.6,
      "miss5_count": 37,
      "assessment": "MODERATE"
    },
    {
      "timing": "HOLD_NO_TIMING_EDGE",
      "total": 47,
      "matched": 16,
      "match_rate_pct": 34.0,
      "miss5_count": 11,
      "assessment": "MODERATE"
    },
    {
      "timing": "NO_BUY_OVERHEATED",
      "total": 14,
      "matched": 0,
      "match_rate_pct": 0.0,
      "miss5_count": 3,
      "assessment": "UNRELIABLE"
    },
    {
      "timing": "BUY_PULLBACK_WAIT",
      "total": 7,
      "matched": 2,
      "match_rate_pct": 28.6,
      "miss5_count": 3,
      "assessment": "MODERATE"
    },
    {
      "timing": "WATCH_TIMING_SETUP",
      "total": 2,
      "matched": 0,
      "match_rate_pct": 0.0,
      "miss5_count": 2,
      "assessment": "UNRELIABLE"
    }
  ],
  "timing_weights": {
    "None": 0.7,
    "HOLD_NO_TIMING_EDGE": 0.7,
    "NO_BUY_OVERHEATED": 0.2,
    "BUY_PULLBACK_WAIT": 0.4,
    "WATCH_TIMING_SETUP": 0.2
  },
  "threshold_recommendation": {
    "current_threshold": 75,
    "recommendation": "MAINTAIN",
    "reason": "timing=None 종목이 전체 미포착의 58%를 차지하며 match_rate=23%로 낮음. 임계값 하향은 이들 종목의 추가 유입만 야기, 전체 정확도 저하 예상. 핵심 개선은 임계값 하향이 아닌 timing=None 종목에 PULLBACK_WAIT 조건 필수화.",
    "alternative_improvement": "timing=None → PULLBACK_ENTRY_TRIGGER_V1 조건 필수 추가 (AGENTS.md B1)"
  },
  "action_items": [
    {
      "priority": 1,
      "action": "timing=None CANDIDATE에 PULLBACK_ENTRY_TRIGGER_V1 조건 필수화",
      "spec_ref": "AGENTS.md Direction B1: PULLBACK_ENTRY_TRIGGER_V1",
      "expected_gain": "passive match rate 28.4% → ~25.7% (+-2.6pp)"
    },
    {
      "priority": 2,
      "action": "alpha_lead_score threshold 현행(75) 유지",
      "reason": "낮추면 timing=None 종목 추가 유입 → 정확도 악화"
    }
  ],
  "shadow_validation_days": 20,
  "guardrail": "REPLAY_ONLY_DO_NOT_AUTO_ADOPT"
}