# WBS-4.1 / 4.2 / 4.3 Status Snapshot

## Snapshot

As of `2026-06-21`, the performance-intelligence phase remains `DATA_GATED`.
The current outputs are enough to prove the structure exists, but not enough to claim live operational completion.
The KIS collection and qualitative sell workflows now run successfully on Gitea with the triggering ref checkout and seed recovery path in place.

## WBS-4.1 T+20 outcome ledger

Source: `Temp/realized_performance_v1.json`

- `t1_operational.n = 68`
- `t1_operational.mean_return_pct = 2.68`
- `t5_operational.n = 0`
- `t20_replay_estimated.n = 0`
- `current_drawdown_pct = -3.42`
- `worst_case_mdd_pct = 30.26`

Interpretation:

- There is operational history, but not enough T+20 live outcomes to close the ledger target.
- The portfolio-level evidence is still marked as `insufficient_data`.
- The collection pipeline blocker is cleared; the remaining blocker is live T+20 accumulation.

## WBS-4.2 prediction accuracy harness

Source: `Temp/prediction_accuracy_harness_v2.json`

- `calibration_state = INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLES`
- `evaluation_methodology = ACTIVE_PASSIVE_SPLIT_V1_INCONCLUSIVE_EXCLUDED`
- `t1_sample = 68`
- `t5_sample = 0`
- `t20_sample = 0`
- `t20_replay_sample = 0`
- `macro_event_excluded_count = 0`

Interpretation:

- The harness is structurally present.
- There is no valid T+5/T+20 sample set yet, so `match_rate` cannot be promoted.
- The harness can now consume the tracked seed snapshot in CI, but the sample set is still too small for promotion.

## WBS-4.3 alpha calibration loop

Source: `Temp/alpha_feedback_loop_v2.json`

- `status = DATA_INSUFFICIENT`
- `cases_analyzed = 0`
- `recommended_adjustments = {}`

Interpretation:

- The calibration loop is not yet receiving enough real outcome data to produce stable reweighting.
- `run 165` and `run 166` confirm the upstream seed and collection stages are unblocked.

## Bottom line

- WBS-4.1: not complete
- WBS-4.2: not complete
- WBS-4.3: not complete
- Shared blocker: insufficient live T+20 accumulation
