# Production Readiness Checklist

**K-ArtSell Aegis v16.0** — Shadow Run Validation System

**Status:** `VALIDATION_GATES_4_OF_5_COMPLETE / READY_FOR_252DAY_REHEARSAL`

**Progress Summary:**
- ✅ Gate 1: DbUp migrations (14 test scenarios)
- ✅ Gate 2: Crash-recovery (6 test scenarios)  
- ✅ Gate 4: Activation workflow (6 test scenarios)
- ✅ Gate 5: Observability metrics (6 test scenarios)
- ⏳ Gate 3: 252-day shadow run (pending live execution)

---

## ✅ Completed (Pre-Merge)

### Architecture & Code Quality
- [x] AGENTS.md v16.0 compliance verified (all 13 decision criteria)
- [x] Vertical Slice pattern: Complete endpoint-to-database features
- [x] Module isolation: Cross-module coupling via Outbox/Inbox pattern only
- [x] Async coupling: ShadowRunJob → IOutboxWriter → OutboxPollerJob → DownstreamConsumerJob
- [x] Zero new technical debt (all deferred work documented)
- [x] Code analysis: CA1822, CA1873 rules suppressed per CLAUDE.md

### Testing
- [x] Unit tests: 17/17 ModelOperations ✓
- [x] Unit tests: 18/18 SignalEngine ✓
- [x] Architecture tests: 5/5 ✓
- [x] Integration tests: 47/47 (including 3 E2E pipeline tests) ✓
- [x] **Total: 87/87 tests passing (0 regressions)**

### Database
- [x] Migrations: 0008_CreateShadowRunTable, 0009_CreateInboxTable, 0010_CreateApprovalQueueTable
- [x] Schema: JSONB payloads, PIT queries (published_at ≤ cutoff), immutability triggers
- [x] Idempotency: UNIQUE constraints (outbox_message, approval_queue), dedup by message_id
- [x] Constraints: Status transitions enforced (Pending → Processed/Failed, Approved → timestamp)

### Features Implemented
1. **Shadow Run Validation** (252+ days)
   - Phase 1: DataBackfill (OHLCV, fees, calendar)
   - Phase 2: Replay (signals → orders → fills)
   - Phase 3: Metrics (Sharpe, PBO, DSR, Calmar, Max DD)
   - Phase 4: Phase Segmentation (Bull/Bear/Sideways/HighVolatility per-phase metrics)
   - Phase 5: Persist (shadow_run table, JSONB analysis)
   - Phase 6: Emit (IOutboxWriter → building_blocks.outbox_message)

2. **Async Event Pipeline** (Real-time notifications)
   - OutboxPollerJob: outbox_message → inbox_message (delivery marker)
   - DownstreamConsumerJob: inbox_message → fetch payload → route to consumers
   - Consumers: SignalR (push), ApprovalQueue (gate-conditional), AuditLog (compliance)

3. **Market Data Integration**
   - KRX OpenAPI: Real price data (fallback to stub for local dev)
   - Retry logic: Transient (429, 503, 408) vs Permanent (400, 404)
   - Cache: 24 hours per (ticker, date)

4. **Approval Workflow**
   - approval_queue table: Pending → Approved/Rejected workflow
   - Constraints: approved_by, approval_reason, rejection_reason validation
   - Audit: requested_at, approved_at, rejected_at timestamps

---

## ⏳ Pending (Pre-Production)

### Validation Gates (CLAUDE.md: "Not Yet Passed")

#### 1. **PostgreSQL DbUp Fresh/Upgrade/Re-run/Failure-Recovery Tests** (REQUIRED)
- [x] Fresh install: DbUp executes 0008, 0009, 0010 in order
- [x] Upgrade from prior version: No data loss, schema migrations idempotent
- [x] Re-run: Migrations safe to re-execute (checksums match)
- [x] Failure recovery: If migration fails, retry doesn't corrupt state
- [x] **Implementation:** DbUpMigrationTests.cs (14 test scenarios, AGENTS.md v16.0 aligned)

#### 2. **Outbox/Inbox Crash-Recovery & Audit Reconciliation** (REQUIRED)
- [x] Outbox crash: Messages survive process restart, replay-safe
- [x] Inbox processing: Consumer failures → retry on restart (status=Failed retrieval)
- [x] Dedup: Duplicate events filtered (UNIQUE(message_id, consumer) constraint)
- [x] Reconciliation: Evidence of all events processed (correlation_id tracing)
- [x] **Implementation:** OutboxInboxCrashRecoveryTests.cs (6 scenarios, database-level validation)

#### 3. **252+ Trading-Day Shadow Run Execution** (REQUIRED)
- [ ] End-to-end execution with real market data (2024-2025)
- [ ] PBO (Probability of Backtest Overfit) ≤ 20% validation gate passes
- [ ] DSR (Daily Sharpe Ratio) ≥ 95th percentile validation gate passes
- [ ] Cost 2x positive: Return survives doubled fees
- [ ] Phase analysis: Bull/Bear/Sideways metrics non-zero
- [ ] Audit trail: Every event logged with CorrelationId
- **Action:** Execute shadow run via ShadowRunJob with real KRX data

#### 4. **Manual Activation Workflow** (REQUIRED)
- [x] Model Card review: Strategy description, risk factors, assumptions
- [x] Maker-checker approval: Two-person sign-off before live trading
- [x] Effective date: approval_queue status tracking (Pending → Approved/Rejected)
- [x] Rollback plan: Rejection workflow documented
- [x] **Implementation:** 3 endpoints (GetApprovalQueue, ApproveModel, RejectModel) + 6 integration tests

#### 5. **Observability & Alerting** (REQUIRED)
- [x] Batch SLA dashboard: Job completion times, queue depths (IObservabilityService.GetBatchSlaMetricsAsync)
- [x] Data quality quarantine: Monitor jobs marked `dq` (GetDataQualityMetricsAsync)
- [x] Duplicate detection: Alert if outbox dedup constraint violated (GetDuplicateDetectionMetricsAsync)
- [x] Reconciliation breaks: Evidence vs current state mismatch (GetReconciliationMetricsAsync)
- [x] Model drift: OOS performance tracking vs baseline (GetModelDriftMetricsAsync)
- [x] **Implementation:** ObservabilityService + GetObservabilityMetrics endpoint + 6 integration tests

---

## 🚀 Pre-Production Deployment Steps

### 1. Database Preparation
```bash
# Apply migrations (DbUp handles versioning)
dotnet run --project src/KArtSell.DbMigrator -c Release

# Verify schema
psql -h 178.104.200.7 -U kartsell -d kartsell -c "\dt model_operations.*"
```

### 2. Shadow Run Rehearsal
```bash
# Via HTTP endpoint
POST /api/shadow-run/initiate
{
  "modelId": "{uuid}",
  "windowStartDate": "2024-01-02",
  "windowEndDate": "2024-08-31"
}

# Monitor Hangfire dashboard
# → ShadowRunJob should complete in ~30 minutes (q-research queue)
# → Check: outbox_message, inbox_message, approval_queue populated
```

### 3. Validation Evidence Collection
- [ ] PBO evidence: Stored in shadow_run.validation_gates_json
- [ ] DSR evidence: Daily Sharpe percentile ≥ 0.95
- [ ] Cost analysis: 2x fee impact documented
- [ ] Phase breakdown: Bull/Bear/Sideways metrics non-zero
- [ ] Audit log: All completions (PASS/FAIL) logged

### 4. Approval Workflow Execution
```bash
# GET /api/approval-queue (list pending)
# POST /api/approval/{id}/approve (maker-checker sign-off)
# Verify: approved_at, approved_by populated
```

---

## 📋 Risk Mitigation

| Risk | Mitigation | Status |
|------|-----------|--------|
| **No real data** | Use KRX OpenAPI (fallback stub available) | ✅ Code ready |
| **Migration failure** | IdUp checksums + rollback procedure | ✅ Designed |
| **Consumer crash** | Transient retry + idempotency dedup | ✅ Implemented |
| **Model drift** | OOS monitoring dashboard + alert | ⏳ Needs wiring |
| **Concurrent access** | DisableConcurrentExecution (60min max) | ✅ Configured |
| **Data loss** | JSONB immutability + audit triggers | ✅ Enforced |

---

## 🎯 Success Criteria (Pre-Go-Live)

### Functional
- [ ] Shadow run completes in < 30 minutes (with real KRX data)
- [ ] All 4 validation gates produce numeric results (no NaN, null)
- [ ] Async events flow: Outbox → Inbox → Consumer (verifiable via logs)
- [ ] Approval queue auto-populated on gate passage
- [ ] Audit log entry created for every completion (PASS/FAIL)

### Non-Functional
- [ ] Zero test regressions (87/87 passing)
- [ ] Query response time: shadow_run SELECT < 100ms
- [ ] Job concurrency: Single execution held for 60 minutes max
- [ ] Memory usage: < 500MB per job run
- [ ] Log compression: Rotate after 10GB per day

### Security
- [ ] No SELECT * (schema-qualified, explicit columns)
- [ ] No direct module-to-module table access (IOutboxWriter/IInboxStore only)
- [ ] No sensitive data logged (API keys, PII redacted)
- [ ] Correlation IDs present in all audit records

---

## 📞 Escalation

**If any validation gate fails:**
1. Capture evidence (logs, metrics, database state)
2. File issue with decision point (e.g., "PBO > 20%, impact assessment needed")
3. Root cause analysis: Code vs data vs external API
4. Resolution: Fix + re-run shadow run OR defer with documented exception

**Owner:** ModelOperations team  
**Stakeholders:** Risk, Trading, Compliance

---

**Next Actions:**
1. Execute 252+ trading-day shadow run (this week)
2. Collect PBO/DSR evidence (evidence_table.md)
3. Activate maker-checker workflow approval
4. Go-live authorization

**Timeline:** ≤ 2 weeks to production  
**Status:** `READY_FOR_REHEARSAL`