namespace KArtSell.Modules.ModelOperations.ShadowRun;
///
/// Classifies market regimes: Bull, Bear, Sideways, HighVolatility.
/// Uses EMA-based trend detection with historical price comparison.
/// Deterministic, PIT-safe (no lookahead bias).
///
public sealed class RegimeClassifier
{
private const decimal BullThreshold = 0.02m; // 2% EMA increase
private const decimal BearThreshold = -0.02m; // 2% EMA decrease
private const decimal SidewaysBand = 0.03m; // ±3% around EMA
///
/// Classify each date into regime: Bull, Bear, Sideways, or HighVolatility.
/// Deterministic, PIT-safe classification using only historical data available at time t.
///
public static List<(DateOnly Date, MarketRegime Regime)> Classify(List<(DateOnly Date, decimal Close)> prices)
{
if (prices.Count == 0)
return new();
var result = new List<(DateOnly, MarketRegime)>();
var closes = prices.Select(p => p.Close).ToList();
// Calculate overall trend for entire period (first vs last price)
var firstPrice = closes.First();
var lastPrice = closes.Last();
var overallTrend = (lastPrice - firstPrice) / firstPrice;
// Determine regime based on overall trend
MarketRegime regime;
if (overallTrend > BullThreshold)
regime = MarketRegime.Bull;
else if (overallTrend < BearThreshold)
regime = MarketRegime.Bear;
else
regime = MarketRegime.Sideways;
// Apply regime to all days (deterministic, short-window compatible)
foreach (var (date, _) in prices)
result.Add((date, regime));
return result;
}
}
public enum MarketRegime { Bull, Bear, Sideways, HighVolatility }