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+# Production Readiness Checklist
+
+**K-ArtSell Aegis v16.0** — Shadow Run Validation System
+
+**Status:** `IMPLEMENTATION_COMPLETE / READY_FOR_252DAY_REHEARSAL`
+
+---
+
+## ✅ Completed (Pre-Merge)
+
+### Architecture & Code Quality
+- [x] AGENTS.md v16.0 compliance verified (all 13 decision criteria)
+- [x] Vertical Slice pattern: Complete endpoint-to-database features
+- [x] Module isolation: Cross-module coupling via Outbox/Inbox pattern only
+- [x] Async coupling: ShadowRunJob → IOutboxWriter → OutboxPollerJob → DownstreamConsumerJob
+- [x] Zero new technical debt (all deferred work documented)
+- [x] Code analysis: CA1822, CA1873 rules suppressed per CLAUDE.md
+
+### Testing
+- [x] Unit tests: 17/17 ModelOperations ✓
+- [x] Unit tests: 18/18 SignalEngine ✓
+- [x] Architecture tests: 5/5 ✓
+- [x] Integration tests: 47/47 (including 3 E2E pipeline tests) ✓
+- [x] **Total: 87/87 tests passing (0 regressions)**
+
+### Database
+- [x] Migrations: 0008_CreateShadowRunTable, 0009_CreateInboxTable, 0010_CreateApprovalQueueTable
+- [x] Schema: JSONB payloads, PIT queries (published_at ≤ cutoff), immutability triggers
+- [x] Idempotency: UNIQUE constraints (outbox_message, approval_queue), dedup by message_id
+- [x] Constraints: Status transitions enforced (Pending → Processed/Failed, Approved → timestamp)
+
+### Features Implemented
+1. **Shadow Run Validation** (252+ days)
+   - Phase 1: DataBackfill (OHLCV, fees, calendar)
+   - Phase 2: Replay (signals → orders → fills)
+   - Phase 3: Metrics (Sharpe, PBO, DSR, Calmar, Max DD)
+   - Phase 4: Phase Segmentation (Bull/Bear/Sideways/HighVolatility per-phase metrics)
+   - Phase 5: Persist (shadow_run table, JSONB analysis)
+   - Phase 6: Emit (IOutboxWriter → building_blocks.outbox_message)
+
+2. **Async Event Pipeline** (Real-time notifications)
+   - OutboxPollerJob: outbox_message → inbox_message (delivery marker)
+   - DownstreamConsumerJob: inbox_message → fetch payload → route to consumers
+   - Consumers: SignalR (push), ApprovalQueue (gate-conditional), AuditLog (compliance)
+
+3. **Market Data Integration**
+   - KRX OpenAPI: Real price data (fallback to stub for local dev)
+   - Retry logic: Transient (429, 503, 408) vs Permanent (400, 404)
+   - Cache: 24 hours per (ticker, date)
+
+4. **Approval Workflow**
+   - approval_queue table: Pending → Approved/Rejected workflow
+   - Constraints: approved_by, approval_reason, rejection_reason validation
+   - Audit: requested_at, approved_at, rejected_at timestamps
+
+---
+
+## ⏳ Pending (Pre-Production)
+
+### Validation Gates (CLAUDE.md: "Not Yet Passed")
+
+#### 1. **PostgreSQL DbUp Fresh/Upgrade/Re-run/Failure-Recovery Tests** (REQUIRED)
+- [ ] Fresh install: DbUp executes 0008, 0009, 0010 in order
+- [ ] Upgrade from prior version: No data loss, schema migrations idempotent
+- [ ] Re-run: Migrations safe to re-execute (checksums match)
+- [ ] Failure recovery: If migration fails, retry doesn't corrupt state
+- **Action:** Add migration test suite (Jest/Xunit) to CI/CD
+
+#### 2. **Outbox/Inbox Crash-Recovery & Audit Reconciliation** (REQUIRED)
+- [ ] Outbox crash: Messages survive process restart, replay-safe
+- [ ] Inbox processing: Consumer failures → retry on restart (transient vs permanent)
+- [ ] Dedup: Duplicate events filtered (UNIQUE constraints hold)
+- [ ] Reconciliation: Evidence of all events processed (audit log trace)
+- **Action:** Add integration test for job restart scenarios
+
+#### 3. **252+ Trading-Day Shadow Run Execution** (REQUIRED)
+- [ ] End-to-end execution with real market data (2024-2025)
+- [ ] PBO (Probability of Backtest Overfit) ≤ 20% validation gate passes
+- [ ] DSR (Daily Sharpe Ratio) ≥ 95th percentile validation gate passes
+- [ ] Cost 2x positive: Return survives doubled fees
+- [ ] Phase analysis: Bull/Bear/Sideways metrics non-zero
+- [ ] Audit trail: Every event logged with CorrelationId
+- **Action:** Execute shadow run via ShadowRunJob with real KRX data
+
+#### 4. **Manual Activation Workflow** (REQUIRED)
+- [ ] Model Card review: Strategy description, risk factors, assumptions
+- [ ] Maker-checker approval: Two-person sign-off before live trading
+- [ ] Effective date: model_operations.model_activation.effective_at set
+- [ ] Rollback plan: Documented de-activation procedure
+- **Action:** Implement ModelActivationEndpoint + maker-checker UI
+
+#### 5. **Observability & Alerting** (REQUIRED)
+- [ ] Batch SLA dashboard: Job completion times, queue depths
+- [ ] Data quality quarantine: Monitor jobs marked `dq` (data quality issue)
+- [ ] Duplicate detection: Alert if outbox dedup constraint violated
+- [ ] Reconciliation breaks: Evidence vs current state mismatch
+- [ ] Model drift: OOS performance tracking vs baseline
+- **Action:** Wire Serilog → observability backend (Seq, Grafana, etc.)
+
+---
+
+## 🚀 Pre-Production Deployment Steps
+
+### 1. Database Preparation
+```bash
+# Apply migrations (DbUp handles versioning)
+dotnet run --project src/KArtSell.DbMigrator -c Release
+
+# Verify schema
+psql -h 178.104.200.7 -U kartsell -d kartsell -c "\dt model_operations.*"
+```
+
+### 2. Shadow Run Rehearsal
+```bash
+# Via HTTP endpoint
+POST /api/shadow-run/initiate
+{
+  "modelId": "{uuid}",
+  "windowStartDate": "2024-01-02",
+  "windowEndDate": "2024-08-31"
+}
+
+# Monitor Hangfire dashboard
+# → ShadowRunJob should complete in ~30 minutes (q-research queue)
+# → Check: outbox_message, inbox_message, approval_queue populated
+```
+
+### 3. Validation Evidence Collection
+- [ ] PBO evidence: Stored in shadow_run.validation_gates_json
+- [ ] DSR evidence: Daily Sharpe percentile ≥ 0.95
+- [ ] Cost analysis: 2x fee impact documented
+- [ ] Phase breakdown: Bull/Bear/Sideways metrics non-zero
+- [ ] Audit log: All completions (PASS/FAIL) logged
+
+### 4. Approval Workflow Execution
+```bash
+# GET /api/approval-queue (list pending)
+# POST /api/approval/{id}/approve (maker-checker sign-off)
+# Verify: approved_at, approved_by populated
+```
+
+---
+
+## 📋 Risk Mitigation
+
+| Risk | Mitigation | Status |
+|------|-----------|--------|
+| **No real data** | Use KRX OpenAPI (fallback stub available) | ✅ Code ready |
+| **Migration failure** | IdUp checksums + rollback procedure | ✅ Designed |
+| **Consumer crash** | Transient retry + idempotency dedup | ✅ Implemented |
+| **Model drift** | OOS monitoring dashboard + alert | ⏳ Needs wiring |
+| **Concurrent access** | DisableConcurrentExecution (60min max) | ✅ Configured |
+| **Data loss** | JSONB immutability + audit triggers | ✅ Enforced |
+
+---
+
+## 🎯 Success Criteria (Pre-Go-Live)
+
+### Functional
+- [ ] Shadow run completes in < 30 minutes (with real KRX data)
+- [ ] All 4 validation gates produce numeric results (no NaN, null)
+- [ ] Async events flow: Outbox → Inbox → Consumer (verifiable via logs)
+- [ ] Approval queue auto-populated on gate passage
+- [ ] Audit log entry created for every completion (PASS/FAIL)
+
+### Non-Functional
+- [ ] Zero test regressions (87/87 passing)
+- [ ] Query response time: shadow_run SELECT < 100ms
+- [ ] Job concurrency: Single execution held for 60 minutes max
+- [ ] Memory usage: < 500MB per job run
+- [ ] Log compression: Rotate after 10GB per day
+
+### Security
+- [ ] No SELECT * (schema-qualified, explicit columns)
+- [ ] No direct module-to-module table access (IOutboxWriter/IInboxStore only)
+- [ ] No sensitive data logged (API keys, PII redacted)
+- [ ] Correlation IDs present in all audit records
+
+---
+
+## 📞 Escalation
+
+**If any validation gate fails:**
+1. Capture evidence (logs, metrics, database state)
+2. File issue with decision point (e.g., "PBO > 20%, impact assessment needed")
+3. Root cause analysis: Code vs data vs external API
+4. Resolution: Fix + re-run shadow run OR defer with documented exception
+
+**Owner:** ModelOperations team  
+**Stakeholders:** Risk, Trading, Compliance
+
+---
+
+**Next Actions:**
+1. Execute 252+ trading-day shadow run (this week)
+2. Collect PBO/DSR evidence (evidence_table.md)
+3. Activate maker-checker workflow approval
+4. Go-live authorization
+
+**Timeline:** ≤ 2 weeks to production  
+**Status:** `READY_FOR_REHEARSAL`