Initial commit: Add project files

2026-08-02 05:15:36 +09:00
commit dcd1322d41
636 changed files with 122352 additions and 0 deletions
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+{
+  "metrics": [
+    {
+      "aggregation": "quantity weighted",
+      "definitionVersion": "1.0.0",
+      "denominator": "eligible sold quantity with complete PIT total-return outcome",
+      "metricId": "FALSE_EXIT_63D",
+      "notes": "Not directly comparable to annual 2% target until annualization and cohort rules are approved",
+      "numerator": "sold quantity whose benchmark-adjusted total return from decision price to window end is positive beyond approved materiality threshold",
+      "population": "non-hard sell decisions",
+      "windowTradingSessions": 63
+    },
+    {
+      "aggregation": "watch count",
+      "definitionVersion": "1.0.0",
+      "denominator": "eligible watches with complete observations",
+      "metricId": "REENTRY_CAPTURE_126D",
+      "minimumTarget": 0.65,
+      "numerator": "eligible watches that create an approved stage before expiry",
+      "population": "reentry-eligible sell decisions",
+      "windowTradingSessions": 126
+    },
+    {
+      "aggregation": "count",
+      "definitionVersion": "1.0.0",
+      "denominator": "not applicable",
+      "maximumTarget": 0,
+      "metricId": "DUPLICATE_STAGE_COUNT",
+      "numerator": "duplicate execution attempts accepted",
+      "population": "all reentry stages"
+    }
+  ],
+  "registryVersion": "outcome-metrics.v1",
+  "status": "PROPOSED_REQUIRES_QUANT_RISK_APPROVAL"
+}
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+{
+  "contractVersion": "outcome-metrics.v2",
+  "status": "PROPOSED",
+  "commonRules": {
+    "pointInTime": true,
+    "revisionAware": true,
+    "costs": ["fee", "tax", "fx", "slippage"],
+    "windowsTradingDays": [1, 5, 20, 63, 126, 252],
+    "attribution": ["recommendation", "publication", "clientDecision", "execution"]
+  },
+  "metrics": [
+    {
+      "metricCode": "OPERATIONAL_INTEGRITY_ERRORS",
+      "numerator": "count of duplicate, lookahead, unauthorized publication, unreconciled critical breaks and immutable-evidence violations",
+      "denominator": "one evaluation run",
+      "aggregation": "sum",
+      "threshold": "0"
+    },
+    {
+      "metricCode": "FALSE_EXIT_ANNUAL_RATE",
+      "numerator": "eligible non-impairment exits followed by approved adverse-regret condition within the versioned evaluation window",
+      "denominator": "all eligible non-impairment exits in the same cohort",
+      "aggregation": "annualized cohort ratio",
+      "threshold": "<=0.02",
+      "decisionRequired": "The exact adverse-regret price and benchmark definition must be approved before production use."
+    },
+    {
+      "metricCode": "REENTRY_CAPTURE_RATE",
+      "numerator": "eligible exits whose versioned reentry contract produced a valid stage-ready observation within 126 trading days",
+      "denominator": "all eligible non-impairment exits with complete data",
+      "aggregation": "cohort ratio",
+      "threshold": ">=0.65"
+    },
+    {
+      "metricCode": "NET_EXPECTED_UTILITY",
+      "numerator": "realized or calibrated expected benefit after risk, fee, tax, FX, slippage and reentry option loss",
+      "denominator": "one evaluated decision or cohort",
+      "aggregation": "mean with confidence interval",
+      "threshold": ">0 and lower confidence bound >0 for opportunity replacement"
+    },
+    {
+      "metricCode": "PBO",
+      "numerator": "CSCV combinations where in-sample winner underperforms out of sample",
+      "denominator": "all approved CSCV combinations",
+      "aggregation": "probability",
+      "threshold": "<=0.20"
+    },
+    {
+      "metricCode": "DSR",
+      "numerator": "deflated performance statistic adjusted for multiple testing and non-normality",
+      "denominator": "approved experiment registry",
+      "aggregation": "probability/confidence",
+      "threshold": ">=0.95"
+    }
+  ]
+}