diff --git a/metrics/pbo_dsr_validation.md b/metrics/pbo_dsr_validation.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..80336ca1 --- /dev/null +++ b/metrics/pbo_dsr_validation.md @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ +# Gate 5: PBO/DSR Metrics Validation Report + +**Status:** ⏳ IN PREPARATION +**Phase:** 2 (Post Job 893 Execution) +**Timeline:** TBD (5-10 days after Phase 1) +**Template Version:** 2026-08-03 + +--- + +## 📊 **Metrics Summary** + +### PBO (Probability of Backtest Overfit) +| Metric | Target | Result | Status | +|--------|--------|--------|--------| +| **PBO Value** | ≥ ? | TBD | ⏳ Pending | +| **CSCV Score** | ≥ ? | TBD | ⏳ Pending | +| **Confidence Interval** | 95% | TBD | ⏳ Pending | +| **Sample Size** | 252+ days | TBD | ⏳ Pending | + +### DSR (Daily Sharpe Ratio) +| Metric | Target | Result | Status | +|--------|--------|--------|--------| +| **DSR Value** | > baseline | TBD | ⏳ Pending | +| **Baseline** | ? | TBD | ⏳ Pending | +| **Minimum Period** | 252 days | TBD | ⏳ Pending | +| **Volatility** | Acceptable | TBD | ⏳ Pending | + +--- + +## ✅ **Validation Checklist** + +### PBO Validation +- [ ] Data extracted from Job 893 +- [ ] CSCV methodology applied (or simplified variant if DEBT-009 deferred) +- [ ] Cross-validation performed +- [ ] Confidence intervals calculated +- [ ] Results within acceptable range +- [ ] Evidence documented + +### DSR Validation +- [ ] Daily returns calculated +- [ ] Sharpe ratio computed (252-day window) +- [ ] Baseline threshold established +- [ ] DSR > baseline verified +- [ ] No data gaps detected +- [ ] Results documented + +### OOS (Out-of-Sample) Performance +- [ ] Bull market phase: DSR = ? +- [ ] Bear market phase: DSR = ? +- [ ] Sideways market phase: DSR = ? +- [ ] Results within acceptable range +- [ ] No systematic failure detected + +--- + +## 📝 **Findings** + +### PBO Analysis +``` +[To be completed during Phase 2] + +Observation: +Conclusion: +Impact: +``` + +### DSR Analysis +``` +[To be completed during Phase 2] + +Observation: +Conclusion: +Impact: +``` + +### OOS Phase Analysis +``` +[To be completed during Phase 2] + +Bull Market DSR: TBD +Bear Market DSR: TBD +Sideways Market DSR: TBD + +Overall: TBD +``` + +--- + +## ✅ **Gate 5 Phase 2 Completion** + +- [ ] All metrics collected +- [ ] Validation complete +- [ ] Evidence archived +- [ ] Report approved +- **Status:** ✅ **PASS** or ❌ **FAIL** (TBD) + +--- + +**Next:** Phase 3 (Crash Recovery Rehearsal) diff --git a/tests/crash_recovery_validation.md b/tests/crash_recovery_validation.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a7688be8 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/crash_recovery_validation.md @@ -0,0 +1,166 @@ +# Gate 5: Crash Recovery Rehearsal Report + +**Status:** ⏳ IN PREPARATION +**Phase:** 3 (Parallel to Phase 2) +**Timeline:** TBD (5 days during Phase 2) +**Template Version:** 2026-08-03 + +--- + +## 🧪 **Test Scenarios** + +### Scenario 1: Outbox Message Loss +``` +Setup: + □ Start Job 893 processing + □ Simulate message loss in Outbox + +Execution: + □ ShadowRunCompletedConsumer detects missing message + □ Retry mechanism activates + □ Message re-queued + □ Processing resumes + +Validation: + □ No state corruption + □ Message eventually processed + □ Logs contain recovery trace + +Result: [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL +Notes: ___________ +``` + +### Scenario 2: PostgreSQL Connection Drop +``` +Setup: + □ Establish normal operation + □ Simulate sudden connection drop + +Execution: + □ Connection pool detects failure + □ Retry logic activates + □ Connection re-established + □ Processing resumes from checkpoint + +Validation: + □ No data loss + □ No duplicate processing + □ Transaction consistency maintained + □ Connection restored within timeout + +Result: [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL +Notes: ___________ +``` + +### Scenario 3: Hangfire Distributed Lock Timeout +``` +Setup: + □ Multiple Hangfire workers active + □ Simulate lock contention + □ Trigger timeout condition + +Execution: + □ Lock acquisition times out + □ Fallback mechanism activates (DEBT-015) + □ Job continues without blocking + □ Other workers unaffected + +Validation: + □ No deadlock observed + □ Graceful degradation + □ Logs contain timeout trace + □ Recovery automatic + +Result: [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL +Notes: ___________ +``` + +### Scenario 4: Inbox Message Processing Failure +``` +Setup: + □ ApprovalQueueConsumer / AuditLogConsumer processing + □ Simulate message deserialization failure + +Execution: + □ Error caught by consumer + □ Message moved to DLQ (Dead Letter Queue) + □ Alert/notification sent + □ Processing continues + +Validation: + □ No data loss + □ Failure logged with context + □ Manual intervention possible + □ Main pipeline unaffected + +Result: [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL +Notes: ___________ +``` + +--- + +## ✅ **Recovery Procedures** + +### Procedure 1: State Reconciliation +``` +When state divergence detected: + □ Identify divergence scope + □ Verify data integrity + □ Re-sync from source of truth + □ Validate reconciliation + □ Log reconciliation action + +Verification: [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL +``` + +### Procedure 2: Message Replay +``` +When messages need replay: + □ Extract failed messages from logs + □ Create replay batch + □ Re-queue with idempotency check + □ Monitor replay execution + □ Verify all messages processed + +Verification: [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL +``` + +### Procedure 3: Lock Recovery +``` +When Hangfire lock stuck: + □ Identify hung lock + □ Check lock timeout (should auto-recover) + □ Verify fallback activated (DEBT-015) + □ Resume processing + □ Monitor for re-occurrence + +Verification: [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL +``` + +--- + +## 📊 **Test Results Summary** + +| Scenario | Status | Duration | Notes | +|----------|--------|----------|-------| +| Outbox Message Loss | [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL | TBD | ⏳ Pending | +| PostgreSQL Drop | [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL | TBD | ⏳ Pending | +| Hangfire Lock Timeout | [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL | TBD | ⏳ Pending | +| Inbox Failure | [ ] PASS [ ] FAIL | TBD | ⏳ Pending | + +**Overall Result:** ⏳ Pending + +--- + +## ✅ **Gate 5 Phase 3 Completion** + +- [ ] All scenarios tested +- [ ] All procedures verified +- [ ] No unrecoverable failures +- [ ] Recovery mechanisms work +- [ ] Evidence archived +- **Status:** ✅ **PASS** or ❌ **FAIL** (TBD) + +--- + +**Next:** Phase 4 (Gate 5 Sign-Off)