feat: Implement EMA crossover signal generation for Phase 2 gates optimization

- Added CalculateEMA() method to ReplayEngine for 12/26-day exponential moving average
- Updated GenerateSignalsAsync() to emit Buy/Sell signals when EMA12 crosses EMA26
- Added 0.1% threshold to avoid noise and excessive trading
- Signal confidence set to 0.75m with clear rationale for traceability
- New SignalGenerationTests to verify signal generation on trending data
- Fixes: signals were empty (0 signals/orders/returns), now generates trade signals
- Result: Phase 2 metrics should now be non-zero (orders, returns, metrics)
- AGENTS.md v16.0: Necessity-driven (unblocks Phase 3), Simple logic, Reliability tested

Co-Authored-By: Claude Haiku 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/KArtSell.Modules.ModelOperations/ShadowRun/ReplayEngine.cs

@@ -160,10 +160,44 @@ public sealed class ReplayEngine(
         IReadOnlyList<DataBackfiller.OhlcvBar> bars,
         CancellationToken cancellationToken)
     {
-        // Simplified: stub model prediction
+        await Task.Delay(5, cancellationToken);
-        // In production: call model.predict() with features
+
-        await Task.Delay(10, cancellationToken);
+        var signals = new List<Signal>();
-        return new List<Signal>();
+
+        // EMA12/EMA26 Crossover Strategy
+        var barsByDate = bars.OrderBy(b => b.Date).ToList();
+        var currentIdx = barsByDate.FindIndex(b => b.Date == date);
+        if (currentIdx < 26)
+            return signals; // Not enough data
+
+        var prices = barsByDate.Take(currentIdx + 1).GroupBy(b => b.Ticker)
+            .ToDictionary(g => g.Key, g => g.Select(b => b.Close).ToList());
+
+        foreach (var (ticker, closes) in prices)
+        {
+            var ema12 = CalculateEMA(closes, 12);
+            var ema26 = CalculateEMA(closes, 26);
+
+            if (ema12 > ema26 * 1.001m) // 0.1% threshold to avoid noise
+                signals.Add(new Signal(Guid.NewGuid(), date, ticker, SignalAction.Buy, 0.75m, "EMA12 > EMA26"));
+            else if (ema12 < ema26 * 0.999m)
+                signals.Add(new Signal(Guid.NewGuid(), date, ticker, SignalAction.Sell, 0.75m, "EMA12 < EMA26"));
+        }
+
+        return signals;
+    }
+
+    private static decimal CalculateEMA(List<decimal> prices, int period)
+    {
+        if (prices.Count < period) return prices.Last();
+
+        var multiplier = 2m / (period + 1);
+        var ema = prices.Take(period).Average();
+
+        foreach (var price in prices.Skip(period))
+            ema = (price * multiplier) + (ema * (1 - multiplier));
+
+        return ema;
     }
 
     private static decimal GetClosePrice(

tests/KArtSell.Integration.Tests/SignalGenerationTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+using Xunit;
+using KArtSell.BuildingBlocks.Time;
+using KArtSell.Modules.ModelOperations.ShadowRun;
+using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Linq;
+using System.Threading.Tasks;
+
+namespace KArtSell.Integration.Tests;
+
+public sealed class SignalGenerationTests
+{
+    private readonly ILogger<ReplayEngine> _logger = new NoOpLogger<ReplayEngine>();
+
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task GenerateSignals_EMA_ProducesTradeSignals()
+    {
+        // Arrange
+        var replay = new ReplayEngine(_logger);
+        
+        // Create OHLCV bars with clear trend
+        var bars = new List<DataBackfiller.OhlcvBar>();
+        
+        // Generate uptrend (days 1-30): price goes from 2500 to 2600
+        for (int i = 1; i <= 30; i++)
+        {
+            var price = 2500m + (i * 3.33m);  // Linear uptrend
+            bars.Add(new DataBackfiller.OhlcvBar(
+                new DateOnly(2026, 1, i),
+                "KOSPI",
+                price - 10,      // open
+                price + 10,      // high
+                price - 15,      // low
+                price,           // close
+                1_000_000L));
+        }
+
+        // Downtrend (days 31-45): price goes from 2600 down to 2500
+        for (int i = 31; i <= 45; i++)
+        {
+            var price = 2600m - ((i - 30) * 6.67m);  // Linear downtrend
+            bars.Add(new DataBackfiller.OhlcvBar(
+                new DateOnly(2026, 2, i - 30),
+                "KOSPI",
+                price - 10,
+                price + 10,
+                price - 15,
+                price,
+                1_000_000L));
+        }
+        
+        var fees = new List<DataBackfiller.FeeScheduleEntry>
+        {
+            new(new DateOnly(2026, 1, 1), 0.001m, 0.0005m),
+        };
+        
+        var sessions = bars.Select(b => b.Date).Distinct().OrderBy(d => d).ToList();
+        
+        // Act
+        var result = await replay.ReplayAsync(
+            Guid.NewGuid(), bars, fees, 10_000_000m, sessions, CancellationToken.None);
+        
+        // Assert
+        Assert.NotNull(result);
+        Assert.NotEmpty(result.Signals);  // Should have signals from trend
+        
+        // Verify signal generation happened
+        var buySignals = result.Signals.Where(s => s.Action == ReplayEngine.SignalAction.Buy).ToList();
+        var sellSignals = result.Signals.Where(s => s.Action == ReplayEngine.SignalAction.Sell).ToList();
+        
+        Assert.NotEmpty(buySignals);  // Should have BUY signals during uptrend
+        Assert.NotEmpty(sellSignals);  // Should have SELL signals during downtrend
+    }
+    
+    private sealed class NoOpLogger<T> : ILogger<T>
+    {
+        public IDisposable? BeginScope<TState>(TState state) where TState : notnull => null;
+        public bool IsEnabled(LogLevel logLevel) => false;
+        public void Log<TState>(LogLevel logLevel, EventId eventId, TState state, Exception? exception,
+            Func<TState, Exception?, string> formatter) { }
+    }
+}