# Gate 5: PBO/DSR Metrics Validation Report

**Status:** ⏳ IN PREPARATION  
**Phase:** 2 (Post Job 893 Execution)  
**Timeline:** TBD (5-10 days after Phase 1)  
**Template Version:** 2026-08-03

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## 📊 **Metrics Summary**

### PBO (Probability of Backtest Overfit)
| Metric | Target | Result | Status |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **PBO Value** | ≥ ? | TBD | ⏳ Pending |
| **CSCV Score** | ≥ ? | TBD | ⏳ Pending |
| **Confidence Interval** | 95% | TBD | ⏳ Pending |
| **Sample Size** | 252+ days | TBD | ⏳ Pending |

### DSR (Daily Sharpe Ratio)
| Metric | Target | Result | Status |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **DSR Value** | > baseline | TBD | ⏳ Pending |
| **Baseline** | ? | TBD | ⏳ Pending |
| **Minimum Period** | 252 days | TBD | ⏳ Pending |
| **Volatility** | Acceptable | TBD | ⏳ Pending |

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## ✅ **Validation Checklist**

### PBO Validation
- [ ] Data extracted from Job 893
- [ ] CSCV methodology applied (or simplified variant if DEBT-009 deferred)
- [ ] Cross-validation performed
- [ ] Confidence intervals calculated
- [ ] Results within acceptable range
- [ ] Evidence documented

### DSR Validation
- [ ] Daily returns calculated
- [ ] Sharpe ratio computed (252-day window)
- [ ] Baseline threshold established
- [ ] DSR > baseline verified
- [ ] No data gaps detected
- [ ] Results documented

### OOS (Out-of-Sample) Performance
- [ ] Bull market phase: DSR = ?
- [ ] Bear market phase: DSR = ?
- [ ] Sideways market phase: DSR = ?
- [ ] Results within acceptable range
- [ ] No systematic failure detected

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## 📝 **Findings**

### PBO Analysis
```
[To be completed during Phase 2]

Observation:
Conclusion:
Impact: 
```

### DSR Analysis
```
[To be completed during Phase 2]

Observation:
Conclusion:
Impact:
```

### OOS Phase Analysis
```
[To be completed during Phase 2]

Bull Market DSR: TBD
Bear Market DSR: TBD
Sideways Market DSR: TBD

Overall: TBD
```

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## ✅ **Gate 5 Phase 2 Completion**

- [ ] All metrics collected
- [ ] Validation complete
- [ ] Evidence archived
- [ ] Report approved
- **Status:** ✅ **PASS** or ❌ **FAIL** (TBD)

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**Next:** Phase 3 (Crash Recovery Rehearsal)
